Let us not talk falsely now, the hour is getting late ( Bob Dylan )

  

 

 

One of Boris Johnson’s biggest lies was his claim at the start of COP26 in Glasgow last November that , with him in charge, the UK would lead the world towards a zero carbon future, 

 

“not with panicked, short-term or self-destructive measures as some have urged. Instead we will unleash the unique creative power of capitalism to drive the innovation that will bring down the costs of going green, so we make net zero a net win for people, for industry, for the UK and for the planet.” 

 

Like most of what he said this was just hot air. New Prime Minister Sunak, perhaps embarrassed by such a ridiculous claim, is choosing to stay away from COP 27, not regarding it as a priority, whilst charlatan Johnson is threatening to attend, no doubt as an opportunity for  further self promotion. 

 

In the meantime the climate emergency accelerates and the need for effective action, at a global level, is ever more apparent. How important COP summits are is a matter of debate. Ed Miliband, commenting on COP 26, and aware of the widespread cynicism surrounding the event, possibly got it right 

 

“Some people will wonder what the point of these summits. In truth, as I see it, they are a forcing mechanism to put world leaders on the spot. Dare I say, to embarrass world leaders. Holding to account is our collective task. The task of civil society. To be truth tellers about the maths, about what is and isn’t being achieved. To support progress, and to call out where governments fall short “ 

 

It is certainly true that the inadequate commitments made by governments in Glasgow have not been kept and need to be ratcheted up. A UN report published last  week calculated that existing plans submitted by governments would lead to a temperature rise of between 2.1C and 2.9C, with the best estimate about 2.5C, only a marginal improvement on the 2.7C temperature rise that would have followed from the commitments made at last year’s COP. Limiting global warming to 1.5 C looks increasingly unobtainable 

 

A report published in advance of COP 27 outlines the enormity of the task facing governments across the world. ‘ State of Climate Action 2022’ is published by Systems Change Lab ( SCL)  and funded by governments and corporate philanthropists, with Jeff Bezos of Amazon seemingly having made the largest donation (!). Likely to be more optimistic than more ant-capitalist assessments it is nevertheless an alarming read. Reflecting on (a lack of )progress since the supposedly historic Paris Agreement of 2015 ( COP 21) it notes that CO2 emissions have continued to climb. Whilst there are some ‘ bright spots’ ( the growth of electric vehicle sales in particular) it describes its findings as ‘ sobering’. If global warming is going to be limited to 1.5 degrees, or anywhere near it, then the following needs to happen:

 

-efforts to phase out coal generation need to  accelerate six-fold

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- declines in annual deforestation rates need to occur 2.5 times faster

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-shifting to healthier, more sustainable diets must occur five times faster by reducing per capita consumption of ruminant meat ( to roughly two burgers per week across the Americas, Europe, and Oceania).

 

-global climate finance, which facilitates these transformations, needs to grow over 10 times faster.

 

The report stresses that there is ‘ no silver bullet’  for the transformation required (how we grow our food, power our lives, transport our goods, build our cities ) Rather there is a need for  “leaders everywhere to employ every tool at their disposal, including economic incentives, regulations and laws, strong institutions, shifts in behaviour, innovations, and unwavering, courageous leadership”

 

Regarding power generation the report notes that the growth of renewables has been dramatic, with costs sharply decreasing, although coal -based generation continues to rise in China and generation from fossil gas has also increased, meaning that emissions from power generation reached an all time high in 2021. The role of governments, meeting in Egypt next month couldn’t be clearer. 

 

“The global response to move away from Russian oil and gas should be the impetus for a faster energy transition. The costs of clean energy technologies in mature markets are no longer the main barrier preventing the transition from taking off more quickly (although cost barriers in developing countries still need to be addressed). Rather, the principal obstacles are the actions, and the inaction, of governments, in so many ways the gate- keepers to how quickly zero-carbon technologies are deployed. Governments control the planning, land-use, and grid-connection rules; they control the quantity of zero-carbon power contracted in auctions and feed-in tariffs; they design the policies and regulations to address the uncosted negative externalities from fossil fuels; and they also make decisions about whether to pursue further expansions in fossil fuel power and avoid shutting down fossil infrastructure before the end of its economic life, which leaves less room for zero-carbon growth. Also, in the context of equitable transitions, governments of developed countries decide how much financial assistance they provide to accelerate the clean energy transition in developing countries. Ultimately, government actions will prove decisive in aligning the power system with 1.5°C pathways “

 

The report doesn’t say it but governments  can and should also come together to tax energy companies in a robust and consistent manner, doing their best to ensure that they don’t avoid their obligations by seeking to manipulate competing tax jurisdictions. 

 

A report by the intergovernmental International  Energy Agency notes the fact that net income for world and gas producers is set to double in 2022, to an unprecedented $4 trillion. Net income for the world’s oil and gas producers is set to double in 2022 to an unprecedented $4tn, money which they could be compelled to invest in green energy development, or which should be removed by taxation to allow governments to act, ideally in a co-ordinated manner. 

 

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Regarding the  transition towards  efficient and electrified buildings the SCL report notes slow progress, despite widespread availability of required technologies and know-how.

 

Increased demand for electricity now outpaces some of the improvements made in energy efficiency, partly  driven by hotter summers and the consequent demand for more cooling than ever together with increases in floor area as populations and economies grow. 

 

 

“Most new buildings are still not being designed and constructed as zero-carbon buildings with high energy efficiency, electric heating and cooking equipment, or on-site renewable energy wherever feasible. This remains a top priority for decarbonizing the system. Simultaneously, existing buildings also need to be retro- fitted to meet the same zero-carbon standard “

 

Since 2000, total GHG emissions from industry, which  have risen faster than in any other sector, with rising demand for industrial products offsetting any efficiency gains. The report identifies a particular need for low-carbon steel and cement plants and for an enormous scaling up of green hydrogen production.

 

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The global food system needs to transform from its current state to one that can feed nearly 10 billion people while lowering GHG emissions—without expanding agriculture’s land area or negatively impacting bio- diversity. This will require significant changes to food production and consumption, sustainably increasing crop yields and  changing on-farm dramatically lowering food  waste, and reducing  meat consumption in high-income countries.

 

 

The report is clear that there cannot be a reliance on ‘ carbon removal’ strategies, whether ‘nature based’ ( ag reforestation, wetland restoration/ preservation ) or technological ( ‘ carbon capture’) although such strategies will have a role to play 

 

Climate finance is growing overall but nowhere near at the pace needed—more than 10 times historical growth rates—to meet investment needs (Buchner et al. 2021). Global public climate finance (comprising domestic and international flows) fell in 2020, as governments shifted focus to urgent healthcare needs and social spending to deal with COVID-19. “Governments largely missed the opportunity to ensure that the massive public spending in response to the pandemic was oriented toward a green recovery “whilst  private climate finance has grown even more slowly than public climate finance over the past five years. 

 

The total amount of global climate finance needs to increase more than eightfold to reach a Paris-aligned target of $5.2 trillion per year by 2030.

 

On a more positive note the report suggests that 

 

“The increasing public support for climate action creates a window of opportunity to act, just at a time when the path to limiting warming to 1.5°C is increasingly narrowing. How we choose to proceed at this crossroads will determine the well-being of today’s younger generations and all those to come”. 

 

It will be governments that will have to lead this action , supported by and ( hopefully ) under increasing pressure from civil society / voters. A start can be made at COP27 and activists of all kinds across the globe should be making demands of politicians at all levels. 

 

 

 

In advance of last years COP  Greta Thunberg pointed out that 

 

“The climate and ecological emergency is, of course, only a symptom of a much larger sustainability crisis. A social crisis. A crisis of inequality that dates back to colonialism and beyond. A crisis based on the idea that some people are worth more than others and, therefore have the right to exploit and steal other people’s land and resources. It’s all interconnected. It’s a sustainability crisis that everyone would benefit from tackling. But it’s naive to think that we could solve this crisis without confronting the roots of it.”( Guardian 21/10/21)

 

At the end of it George Monbiot lamented that “Our survival depends on raising the scale of civil disobedience until we build the greatest mass movement in history, mobilising the 25% who can flip the system. “ ( Guardian 14/11/21) .

 

Neither offers any strategy for achieving these goals though and in the meantime COP is all the world has. and its deliberations should  be taken seriously . Commitments made there need to be acted upon. I’m afraid I don’t have a strategy for achieving that but know that the whole world needs to work on one. Those of us living in societies with basic democratic rights have a particular responsibility , whilst putting pressure on dictatorial governments, China in particular, constitutes a central problem. China, which is responsible for half of global coal mining is also a major green energy producer and can claim primary credit for the massive expansion in the number of electric buses.  And whilst it may be the country with the highest level of current emissions it’s per capita emissions are half those of the USA and moreover much of its emissions are the result of its role  as the largest manufacturing centre for the worlds consumer goods. It is, like most things, a complicated and contradictory state of affairs. 

 

The predicted defeat of climate wrecker Bolsonaro in this weekend’s Brazilian election offers a beacon of hope in a generally gloomy environment. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

      

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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