Labour, Brexit and a General Election



 

Brexit has been overshadowing everything, and not in a good way.
I write on the day when the European election results will be counted, with the prospect of Farage and co being the largest party, much of the Labour vote having deserted to the Brexit Party or, probably in considerably larger numbers, to avowedly Remainer parties- The Lib Dems and Greens in particular.


The focus on Brexit has not, of course, prevented other issues breaking through to demand attention. The Climate Crisis rather than Brexit is likely to be remembered as the defining issue of the next decade whilst the funding crisis in public services continues to grow. Politics itself is regarded by many as ' broken' .


The next Tory leader will almost certainly be a ' Hard  Brexiteer ' and will become Prime Minister
The deadlock in Parliament will continue however, with the proposed Withdrawal Agreement explicitly opposed by most current MPs but the EU adamant that it can't and won't be altered.


Assuming no majority in parliament for a ' People's Vote' or for a ' No Deal Brexit ' the best hope for avoiding the UK ' crashing out' is probably a vote of no confidence in the new Prime Minister and his or her government, requiring around a dozen Tory Remainers to at least abstain.

A vote of no confidence would lead to an election, with or without a brief delay caused by the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Failing that then we would be reliant on the EU allowing a further extension in
order to allow such an election to take place, or holding such an election in the immediate aftermath of a 'crash out', in an atmosphere of chaos and panic and with a ' hard Brexit' government in complete paralysis.


In any event an election would have to take place, almost certainly before the end of the year. How should Labour go about trying to win it ?


It will need, first and foremost, to agree a position on Brexit. In the event of a ' No Deal' Brexit having already taken place by the time of the election then presumably Labour would be wanting to start negotiations to retrospectively agree a Withdrawal Agreement, prior to starting discussions about a long term trade deal. It is almost certain that the EU would be willing to  offer the same Withdrawal Agreement negotiated with Theresa May, since this was an agreement which settles the three things which the EU has identified as being essential to its interests and those of its member states and
citizens, namely:


- the rights of EU nationals currently living in the UK
- the UK's outstanding financial obligations
-  the protection  of the Good Friday Agreement, involving the absence of a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of Ireland.



Labour would surely want to agree the Withdrawal Agreement in these circumstances ( there was never a 'deal') and should include this in its election manifesto with a view to starting negotiations about a long term deal upon its re-election. Acceptance of the Withdrawal Agreement would presumably include the re-instatement of the Two Year Transition Period, which should be possible given that the UK would literally just have left.



In the event of a election happening before the UK leaves the EU then Labour should seek a further
extension of membership to allow a People's Vote to take place with three options on offer


1) Leaving with ' No Deal'


2) Leaving on the basis of The Withdrawal Agreement, with a commitment to securing a long term settlement based on a Customs Union and close alignment to the Single Market, to be negotiated during a Two Year Transition Period, with the possibility of extending this further.


 3) Cancelling Article 50 and remaining in the EU.

Voters would be given the opportunity of choosing a first and second preference. Labour should make it clear that it regarded both 2 and 3 as acceptable but would be unable and unwilling to implement option 1. If the preferred option was leaving with ' No Deal' then Labour would give up office and expect an alternative government, made up of Tory hard line Brexiteers and Brexit Party MPs presumably, to implement this disastrous outcome .


Labour won't be campaigning solely about Brexit of course. Hopefully it will make addressing the Climate Crisis central to its campaign, with a commitment to a Green New Deal and reducing carbon emissions as quickly as possible. It should also seek to fix the UK's broken politics, including making a commitment to considering electoral reform in the Constitutional Convention it is committed to holding.

It must also counter talk about deficits and ' what the country can afford  ' which its opponents are likely to focus on to seek to discredit the Green New Deal. It should instead promote a different understanding of how government spending works, explaining that it is not dependent on either
taxation or borrowing and that there is no need to ' balance the books' .

Richard Murphy has written extensively about financing a Green New Deal on his blog, including most recently here

https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2019/05/21/growth-mmt-and-the-green-new-deal/






























Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Facebook Post on GPEW and Global Greens

  WE NEED GLOBAL GREENS TO HELP LEAD A MOVEMENT FOR GLOBAL ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THE CLIMATE AND ECOLOGICAL EMERGENCY The outcome of COP28 was as unsatisfactory as we all expected. Although there was agreement (at last !) to transition from fossil fuels this only applies to energy generation. There remains no firm commitment to stop using fossil fuels for transportation, construction, food production or anything else, and no commitment even to encourage people to move away from  a meat-based diet. Time is fast running out. In the meantime, Greens in the UK and elsewhere continue to focus on electoral advancement, based largely on a commitment to mitigate the worst effects of the Climate and Ecological Emergency on their own localities, regions and nation states. Such an approach is an unsatisfactory response to the scale of the emergency and imminent global catastrophe. We would like to see greens leading governments across the planet. Realistically we know this isn’t going to happen i
Read more

Owner Occupation for All Who Want It

There is a housing crisis in the UK,which has various components.  There is clearly a need to provide adequate temporary accommodation to all those who need it. At present local authorities only have a duty to accommodate those considered to be in ‘priority need’, which usually means they have dependent children, are fleeing violence or who have significant disabilities or health problem. As if being homeless wasn’t priority enough !   Beyond the agreed need to provide adequate ‘ emergency’ accommodation there is a need to substantially increase the supply of ‘ social housing’, provided by local councils and housing associations, and offering relatively secure tenancies at reasonable rents. The significant decline in the quantity of social housing since Thatcher’s Right to Buy legislation in the 1980’s has meant that more and more people, including families with young children, have to rent from private landlords, with no security of tenure and little protection from poor standards of
Read more

Review of Nomad Century by Gaia Vince

The author begins her clear and concise book with a stark warning.  “People are finally beginning to face up to the climate emergency. However, while nations rally to reduce their carbon emissions, and try to adapt at-risk places to hotter conditions, there is an elephant in the room: for large portions of the world, local conditions are becoming too extreme and there is no way to adapt”.  She then offers a solution which also addresses an increasingly toxic issue in politics, and in doing so provides hope rather than despair.  Vince  summarises the current reality of run-away climate change as others have done, and agrees with the need for economies and lifestyles to change in order to limit the extent of the coming catastrophe. She concludes however that even with maximum mitigation – renewable energy, changes to transportation and to the way food is produced and buildings constructed – the most realistic scenario is that global temperatures will rise by 3-4 degrees centigrade by the
Read more