Zero Carbon Britain by 2030 ?



Several people have mentioned the need to aim for/ commit to Net Zero Carbon in the UK by 2030 ,citing the Zero Carbon Britain report as demonstrating how this could be done. 

I attach a link to the report here  https://www.cat.org.uk/download/25766/

The first thing to be said about the report is that it was produced in 2013. Given that little progress has made in the years since then I assume the date of 2030 needs to to be amended to at least 2036 or 2037. This new date assumes ( presumably) that there will be a Labour led government in power by early 2020 at the latest, although the authors of the report appear to be hoping for a cross party approach ( ? !)

The report is extremely helpful as a statement of intent, a list of what needs to be done ( although I am not sure about all of the wood burning ! ) 

The authors themselves state 

“We do not explicitly model or make assumptions on how we get there “. ( ie a Zero Carbo Britain by 2030).  - p34


“We create a scenario that technically achieves its aims – but it is not a road map of how to get there, which will likely depend on political persuasion and societal values”  p34

“We  assume that over the course of the coming decades, the impacts of climate change will really start to bite, and that political and public motivation and action will become more aligned with what is physically necessary to rise to the challenge of climate change. Every sector of society will have taken it seriously and will act accordingly. What is currently economically,  socially or politically feasible takes second priority to what is physically necessary” p34-5

To achieve a Zero Carbon Britain ( ZCB) by 2030 the report assumes the following will have been achieved  over a 17-18 year period beginning in 2013 :

A reduction in energy demand of about 60%, including a retrofitting of all existing buildings to 
reduce demand for heating by around 50%  P39-40

Around 90% of road passenger transport is in electric vehicles – cars, vans, coaches and buses. The rail network is also close to fully electrified (95%) p52

There is no domestic aviation – most of the journeys currently made by domestic flights are now made by rail. The number of miles flown for international aviation falls by two-thirds. In combination with efficiency improvements, this reduces aviation liquid fuel demand by around 75%. p52

Rail freight has more than doubled as around 20% of road freight switches to rail. HGVs and other heavy commercial vehicles (tractors and diggers, for example) are mostly powered by carbon neutral synthetic liquid fuel (80%), with some hydrogen powered vehicles (20%). Freight moved by air is all but eliminated, and changes to the type of goods that need moving means shipped freight decreases by over 50%. Ships are powered by synthetic liquid fuels. Overall, energy demand from transport has fallen by 78% from 2010 levels p53


Offshore wind turbines produce around half of the energy we need. p54


About 25% of energy is provided by biomass (mostly burning wood ) 

(Hydrogen can be used to power hydrogen cars. However, the problems that apply to hydrogen storage also apply to using it to power vehicles: hydrogen is difficult to store and transport and, in practice, it would be difficult to use it as the main source of transport fuel. Doing so would 
require us to develop a whole new infrastructure.p70) 

The UK’s agricultural GHG emissions are dramatically reduced through changing the mix
of foods in our diet: less meat, more fruit and vegetables, pulses and starchy foods, such as 
pasta, bread and potatoes. These dietary changes have positive health outcomes: reducing 
levels of obesity and diet-related diseases.



The UK becomes more self-sufficient in food production, importing only 17% of our food products rather than the current 42%.We do not import livestock products or feed for livestock The UK can provide a healthy diet for a growing population not only without converting new land to agriculture but by actually reducing the amount of agricultural land needed in the UK. p90


Beef and lamb products in the UK diet have been reduced by 92%.Pig and chicken products (including eggs) have been reduced by 58%. Dairy consumption has also reduced; products such as milk, cheese and yoghurt have reduced by 59%. p92

About 25% of land currently used to produce food has been converted to use for fuel crops ( mostly wood)
Overall there is a reduction of 94% in emissions when compared with 2010 ( the year used for comparison ) The remaining 6% is offset by doubling the forested area of the UK, harvesting 
more timber to use in buildings and infrastructure restoring 50% of our peatlands, and converting waste wood either into biochar or leaving it in ‘silo stores’  p94

The report concludes


“It is unlikely that any one single policy mechanism can deliver the radical emissions reductions we now require. We will need a policy framework combining effective mechanisms designed to work well with a range of sectors, including energy production, industry, housing, business, transport, land use and agriculture. Working national and local policies together in this way has 
been shown to be effective in reducing emissions . Closing the gap between what is physically necessary to address climate change and what current UK emissions reduction targets are 
projected to achieve will require high-level all-party political commitment, cross-sectorial 
collaboration and public engagement at every level.” p115



I am not convinced that the above is achievable by 2030, regardless of what ‘the science demands’. Achieving it by 2050 will be enormously challenging.

A Labour Party committed to 100% renewable power by 2030, and to achieving a zero carbon UK by 2050 ( sooner if possible to allow poor countries to use the dwindling amount of fossil fuel that can be ‘safely’ used) would, in my opinion, be absolutely fantastic and at the ambitious end of what could be realistically put in a radical election manifesto which had  the issue of climate change as a central concern. A motion to this year’s conference should seek to make the Labour Party genuinely committed to doing as much as can be done and as quickly as possible ,whilst recognising the need to reach zero carbon by 2050, as per the scientific consensus that underpins the recent IPCC report and  matching the ambition of the Green New Deal Motion to the US Congress.  

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